Second Philadelphia Tribune Poll: Fattah first, Evans second, Knox now third in black voter Preference

One in four Black voters still Undecided

PHILADELPHIA, March 26 /PRNewswire-USNewswire/ -- A recent poll among 400 registered African-American voters who said they planned to vote in the city of Philadelphia's May 2007 Democratic Primary Election has provided evidence that black voters still rank Chaka Fattah first (27 %), and Dwight Evans second (18%), but that Tom Knox (now at 14%), has moved past Michael Nutter (9%) and Bob Brady (8%), since October 26-29, 2006, when the poll was last taken. While he still maintains a lead position among black voters, Fattah's support has decreased from 33 percent to 27 percent; Evans and Brady have each increased their support by two percent; Knox has increased his support by 13 percent and Nutter's preference level has remained exactly the same as it was five months ago. The poll, sponsored by the nation's oldest African-American newspaper, The Philadelphia Tribune, and conducted by nationally respected pollster Ron Lester of Lester & Associates in Washington DC., was taken between March 21 and March 23, 2007 and has a margin of error of +/ - 4.9 percent. The citywide telephone survey is, arguably, the first statistically projectable political poll sponsored by an African-American newspaper.

Among the poll's other key findings are the fact that almost one in four of the city's black voters are still "undecided." This group, according to the survey, is comprised of 53 percent of persons who are 60 years of age and older (an additional 36 percent are between the ages of 40 and 50); 61 percent hold a high school diploma or less, 69 percent earn less than $30,000 per year and 80 percent are residents of North, Northwest, and West Philadelphia. In the last Tribune Poll, taken five months ago, 42 percent of black South Philadelphians were also undecided but that percentage has decreased dramatically, to 13 percent, with most South Philadelphia voters moving to Bob Brady, whose support in that part of the city increased from nine percent, and to Tom Knox, whose support increased from zero percent to 22 percent among South Philadelphians.

The survey also revealed that only six percent of black voters who reside in Northeast Philadelphia are undecided.

It's interesting to note that, while the number of undecided black voters has declined by nine percent since the last Tribune poll, there has been a substantial gender shift among those voters over the past five months. In October 2006, more black women (37%) were undecided than black men (28%). Since the last Tribune poll, however, more black women have begun to make up their minds about the candidates, with their support going primarily to Knox (up from 1 percent to 10 percent) and Evans (up from 16 percent to 22 percent). In addition, Fattah seems to have lost about a third of his support among black women, moving from 33 percent to 22 percent, while maintaining unchanged his 33 percent support among black men, over the period. The poll also revealed that black men seem to be every bit as undecided today, at 27 percent, as they were five months ago, at 28 percent.

According to the most recently available U.S. Census data, African Americans, at 45 percent of the City's overall population, comprise the largest single ethnic voting block in Philadelphia. They also represent approximately 61 percent of the City's registered Democratic voters. Philadelphia's Republican Mayoral Primary Election will be uncontested and the City has not had an elected Republican mayor since 1952. It appears that the five candidates will be challenged between now and Primary Election Day to establish clearer distinctions among themselves regarding their stances on key campaign issues.

As an example, when asked which of the five mayoral democratic candidates would do the best job of addressing the issue of crime and public safety, the greatest percentage of respondents (36 percent) said they didn't know. Respondents who did offer an opinion on that subject ranked the candidates, as follows: Fattah, first (18%); Evans, second (17%); Knox, third (14%); Nutter, fourth (10%); and Brady, fifth (6%). It's interesting to note that the support on this question, for the top three candidates, all lies within the survey's margin of error, indicating that neither of the candidates has established a significant leadership position in the minds of the voters on this critically important issue.

When asked which of the five major Democratic candidates would do the best at addressing issues of job creation and economic development, more than one in four respondents (26%) said they didn't know. Those respondents who offered an opinion on this question said that Evans and Fattah (each with 22%) are best capable of handling job creation/economic development issues, followed by Knox (14%), Brady (10%) and Nutter (6%).

The respondents were also asked to rank the candidates according to their potential for improving public education; and nearly one in four (24%) said they didn't know which would do the best job. Those who did respond with an opinion, ranked Fattah, first (28%); Evans, second (23%); Knox, third (12%); Nutter, fourth (8%) and Brady, fifth (5%).

According to the Tribune Poll, black voters have not been entirely satisfied with the extent to which the candidates have addressed black-focused issues during the campaign. As an example, when asked to rank the five candidates "in terms of the job they are doing in addressing the issues of importance to black voters," no candidate was ranked "excellent/good" by more than 50 percent of the respondents. Rated highest was Evans, at exactly 50%; followed by Fattah, at 49%; then Knox, at 36%; Nutter, at 25% and Brady, at 21%. In fact, in response to this question, voters said that two candidates, Nutter and Brady, rated more negatively than positively, with Nutter rated 25 percent "excellent/good" and 40 percent "fair/poor" and Brady rated 21 percent "excellent/good" and 44 percent "fair/poor."

A review of the survey findings by education, income, employment status and geography also revealed interesting trends:

-- The percentage of undecided voters who are "high school graduates or less" has declined over the past five months from 32 percent to 22 percent, with the greatest decline in support in that category experienced by Fattah, at 7 percent, and the greatest increase in support experience by Knox at 16 percent. Fattah remains the overall leader among these voters with 26 percent.

-- The percentage of undecided voters with "some college" has declined by 5 percent to 30 percent, with the greatest loss in support experienced by Fattah at 3%, and the greatest increased support experienced by Evans, moving up six percentage points to 22 percent. Here, too, Fattah remains the overall leader with 33 percent support.

-- The percentage of voters with postgraduate degrees, who represent about four percent of respondents, also showed a decrease in "undecideds," from 34 percent to 24 percent.

-- All candidates, except Bob Brady, whose support dropped from six percent to one percent in the segment, showed an increase in support among postgraduates over the five-month period. The greatest increase was Evans', going up 34 percent to 40 percent. Fattah, however, remains the leader in this segment with 43 percent of the voter preference.

-- While still substantially "undecided" at 28 percent as compared to 34 percent in October, black retirees have shown the greatest decrease in support for Fattah and Nutter (both at 8 percent). The greatest increase in Black retiree support went to Tom Knox, who grew from zero percent to 20 percent in that segment. Fattah, however, still maintains the overall lead among black retirees at 24 percent.

-- Black voters who describe themselves as "laborer's" have reduced their "undecided" percentage from 32 percent to 25 percent over the five- month period. The greatest reduction in laborer's support over the period was experienced by Dwight Evans, whose voter preference in this segment dropped eight points to 14 percent. Surprisingly, Bob Brady also experienced a decrease in laborer support, albeit, at 3 percent, within the margin of error. Fattah is now a strong leader in this category, increasing his support from a "second-to-Evans" 21 percent in October to a commanding 41 percent in the current poll.

-- The Poll also indicated that African Americans who are "professional white collar" are still significantly undecided, at 25 percent. The greatest fall-off in support over the past five months in this category was experienced by Fattah, whose voter preference level dropped from 37 percent to 20 percent. The greatest increase in this category was by Nutter, who increased 16 points, to 23 percent and who, now, leads among black voters in that segment. Tribune Publisher Robert W. Bogle said that, in addition to continuing the Tribune Poll, his newspaper has made a commitment to bring a sharper focus on issues in the mayor's race that might improve the quality of life for African Americans in Philadelphia.

SOURCE The Philadelphia Tribune

Last Updated: March 28, 2007