PHILADELPHIA, Nov. 16 /PRNewswire/ -- When asked for whom they planned to vote in the May 2007 Democratic Primary Election for mayor of Philadelphia, one out of every three of the City's African-American voters said they were still undecided, according to a recent poll by The Philadelphia Tribune, the nation's oldest black newspaper. Of those who have taken an early position on the upcoming election, an additional 33 percent said they planned to vote for U.S. Congressman Chaka Fattah, an unannounced mayoral candidate; 16 percent said they would vote for Pennsylvania State Representative Dwight Evans, another unannounced candidate; and nine percent said they would vote for former Philadelphia City Councilman Michael Nutter, the Primary Election's only formally announced candidate. Other mentions went to U.S. Congressman Bob Brady (6%), and to Businessman Tom Knox, Electricians Union leader John Dougherty and former Philadelphia City Controller Jonathon Saidel, each at one percent.

The seven men, all Democrats, are the only persons who have expressed consistent interest in participating in the City's 2007 mayor's race. Incumbent Mayor John F. Street is ineligible to stand for re-election to a third-straight term, according to Philadelphia's Home Rule Charter.

The Tribune's citywide telephone survey, arguably the first statistically projectable political poll ever sponsored by an African-American newspaper, was conducted by nationally respected pollster Ron Lester, of Lester & Associates in Washington, D.C. and was completed among 400 African-American, registered Philadelphia voters, between October 26 and October 29, 2006. The poll was conducted such that the margin of error was +/- 4.9 percent.

According to the most recently available U.S. Census data, African Americans, at 45 percent of the City's overall population, comprise the largest single ethnic voting bloc in Philadelphia. They also represent approximately 61 percent of the City's registered Democratic voters.

The issue of the City's undecided, black voters is especially evident in a geographical analysis of the responses. For purposes of the survey, the City's black electorate was aggregated into five geographic areas with significant African-American voter registration - North Philadelphia, Northwest Philadelphia, West Philadelphia, South Philadelphia and Northeast Philadelphia. In three of those five areas, North, West and South Philadelphia, the greatest percentage of respondents are still undecided, topped by South Philadelphia, where 41 percent of black, registered voters say they are not yet ready to make a choice. Thirty-seven percent of the black voters in, both, North and South Philadelphia feel the same way.

In the other two areas, Fattah has taken an early, close lead. In Northwest Philadelphia, he outpolled Evans 36 percent to 34 percent; and in Northeast Philadelphia, he is preferred over Evans, 26 percent to 25 percent. In both areas, of course, Fattah's lead falls within the poll's margin of error.

Among the other candidates, only Nutter was able to achieve double-digit preference levels in any of the five geographic areas (10% in Northwest Philadelphia, 13% in West Philadelphia and 16% in Northeast Philadelphia).

While the City's undecided black voters are represented in virtually every demographic category, they can be primarily described, as follows: they are predominantly residents of North, South and West Philadelphia (32%, 25% and 29%, respectively); they are predominantly low-to-moderate, as to income (64% reported having family income of less than $30,000 per year; from an educational perspective, the overwhelming majority (69%) hold a high school diploma or less; and they tend to be very heavily represented (66%) by those who reported that they were between 40 and 59 years of age.

When the responses were analyzed by gender, it was clear that women (37%) had a significantly greater tendency to be undecided about who should be Philadelphia's next mayor than did men (27%). At 33 percent and 34 percent, respectively, Fattah was the top candidate among, both, black women and black men. Evans' support among male and female respondents was exactly the same, at 16 percent. By comparison, both Nutter and Brady have lesser overall support, but greater following among men than women (Nutter at 12% men and 7% women; Brady at 8% men and 4% women). Knox polled at one percent from both men and women, while Dougherty had less than one percent response from black men and Saidel, less than one percent from black women.

When the data were analyzed along educational lines, Fattah was the leading choice among those who have a high school diploma or less (33%). Interestingly, an additional 33 percent in this educational category say they have yet to make up their minds about any of the candidates. Evans is third choice in this category, at 14 percent, followed by Nutter, at 10 percent, and Brady, at seven percent.

Among those with some college, or who hold a college degree, the greatest number of respondents (36%) are undecided, followed by Fattah, at 35 percent, Evans, at 16 percent, Nutter, at eight percent, and Dougherty, at three percent. In the final and smallest educational category, those holding post-graduate degrees, Evans is the clear leader, at 40 percent, followed by "undecided," at 25 percent, Fattah, at 17 percent, Nutter, at 12 percent, and Brady, at six percent.

It is especially interesting to note that the Tribune Poll respondents expressed similar levels of overall dissatisfaction with their quality of life and political environment as did respondents to recent statewide and national polls, but for different reasons. In fact, 57 percent of Philadelphia's black, registered voters believe things in their area are "pretty seriously off on the wrong track," as compared to 30 percent who believe things are "going in the right direction." While respondents to recent national polls have cited the "war in Iraq" as their issue of primary concern, Philadelphia's black voters say their primary issues are "reducing crime and making the streets safe" (27%), "reducing the flow of drugs in our neighborhoods" (16%), and "improving public education" (14%). The "war in Iraq" actually ranked fourth as a primary concern for black voters, at nine percent, just ahead of "working to improve the economy and creating jobs," at seven percent.

According to Tribune Publisher Robert W. Bogle, the newspaper plans to update late October's baseline poll results on the Philadelphia mayor's race at least two times between now and the City's Primary Election in May 2007.

The Philadelphia Tribune

Last Updated: March 21, 2007