THE FOURTH POLL: NUTTER
TAKES THE LEAD

Michael Nutter has taken the lead in the mayor's race -- the third man to lead this bumpy, ever-changing race, according to a new Daily News Keystone Poll released May 9, 2007. But the poll also finds a
great deal of "uncertainty and potential for change" among the city’s Democratic voters.

Nutter’s poll numbers have jumped from 12 percent in the April poll to 31 percent now. Tom Knox polled at 21 percent; Chaka Fattah, 13 percent; Bob Brady, 11 percent; and Dwight Evans, 3 percent. Twenty-one percent were undecided, say the pollsters, the Center for Opinion Research of the Floyd Institute for Public Policy at Franklin & Marshall College.Why the change? Read the Daily News story (posted 5/9/07)

Read all of the pollsters' "key findings" here

Full results of the poll here; in pdf form, here.

Third Keystone Poll results (April) here; second Keystone Poll results (January) here; first Keystone poll results (July 2006) here. Other past Keystone Polls here.

A note about the methodology

Bob Brady, Dwight Evans and Chaka Fattah saw their numbers decline.

However, this race remains extremely volatile. One in five voters remains undecided in the race. Even when pushed to make a choice, one in seven Democratic voters remains truly undecided.

And even those who say they've decided might change their minds: two in five voters - a whopping 41 percent! - are “still making up their minds” about their choice, even if they've said they prefer one candidate.

"No candidate's voters are more certain about their choice than another’s," the pollsters note.

The Would-be Mayors

Potential voters were asked: If the Democratic primary election for Philadelphia's mayor were being held today, who would you vote for?

Michael Nutter: 31%	Tom Knox: 21%	Chaka Fattah: 13%
		Do not know
Bob Brady: 11%	Dwight Evans: 3%	Do not know: 21%