Keystone Poll, May 2007
Most serious problem in city?
Pols' favorables/unfavorables
Who would you vote for?
Who is your second choice?
What qualifications are important?
Impact of advertising
Demographic questions Jump to:
Key findings
Methodology
Voice choice by demographics
Who are the undecideds?
Likelihood of voting
Paying attention to campaigns?
May 2007, N = 385 Registered Democrats
April 2007, N = 364 Registered Democrats
January 2007, N = 252 Registered Democrats
Many people will vote in the primary election for mayor in May; however, many other people
will not. What would you say are the chances of your voting in the May primary election? Are you...
Apr. 2007 |
May 2007 |
|
77% |
82% |
Certain to vote |
15% |
8% |
Will probably vote |
5% |
6% |
Chances are fifty-fifty you will vote |
3% |
3% |
Don't you think that you will vote |
0% |
1% |
Do not know |
Some people don't pay much attention to political campaigns. How about you? Would you say
that you are…
Apr. 2007 |
May 2007 |
|
58% |
58% |
Very much interested |
34% |
36% |
Somewhat interested |
7% |
6% |
Not very interested |
1% |
0% |
Do not know |
What do you think is the MOST IMPORTANT PROBLEM facing PHILADELPHIA today?
Jan. 2007 |
Apr. 2007 |
May 2007 |
|
71% |
72% |
73% |
Crime, drugs, violence |
8% |
9% |
9% |
Education, schools, programs |
2% |
6% |
4% |
Government, politicians, leadership |
5% |
4% |
4% |
Unemployment, economy |
3% |
2% |
2% |
Social problems |
2% |
1% |
1% |
Improving city cleanliness, appearance, entertainment |
1% |
1% |
1% |
Housing |
2% |
1% |
1% |
Taxes |
4% |
3% |
3% |
Other |
2% |
1% |
2% |
Do not know |
Responses receiving less than 0.5% were added to the other category.
I'd like to ask you a few questions about some people involved in Philadelphia politics. Please let me
know if your opinion of the person is favorable, not favorable, undecided, or if you haven't heard enough
about the person to have an opinion. (rotated)
Favorable |
Unfavorable |
Undecided |
Not heard |
DK |
|
Michael Nutter |
52% |
11% |
19% |
17% |
1% |
Apr 2007 |
31% |
17% |
23% |
29% |
0% |
Jan 2007 |
31% |
12% |
17% |
37% |
3% |
Tom Knox |
38% |
22% |
25% |
14% |
1% |
Apr 2007 |
42% |
11% |
25% |
22% |
0% |
Jan 2007 |
32% |
4% |
16% |
46% |
2% |
Chaka Fattah |
34% |
27% |
22% |
16% |
1% |
Apr 2007 |
34% |
19% |
28% |
18% |
1% |
Jan 2007 |
49% |
13% |
15% |
22% |
1% |
Dwight Evans |
29% |
22% |
23% |
25% |
1% |
Apr 2007 |
34% |
14% |
22% |
29% |
1% |
Jan 2007 |
36% |
7% |
15% |
39% |
3% |
Bob Brady |
22% |
32% |
24% |
21% |
1% |
Apr 2007 |
28% |
24% |
25% |
23% |
0% |
Jan 2007 |
23% |
8% |
18% |
49% |
2% |
John Street |
21% |
62% |
13% |
3% |
1% |
Apr 2007 |
25% |
57% |
15% |
2% |
1% |
Jan 2007 |
27% |
57% |
12% |
3% |
1% |
If the DEMOCRATIC primary election for Philadelphia's mayor were being held today and the
candidates were... (rotated), would you vote for…
Jan 2007 |
Apr 2007 |
May 2007 |
|
12% |
12% |
31% |
Michael Nutter |
22% |
24% |
21% |
Tom Knox |
26% |
17% |
13% |
Chaka Fattah |
8% |
16% |
11% |
Bob Brady |
10% |
10% |
3% |
Dwight Evans |
22% |
21% |
21% |
Do not know |
Are you absolutely CERTAIN you will vote FOR [fill Q14] in the election, or are you still making up
your mind? Subsample size is 303
59% |
Absolutely certain |
41% |
Still making up mind |
As of today, do you lean more to… Subsample size is 82
9% |
Michael Nutter |
7% |
Tom Knox |
5% |
Bob Brady |
4% |
Chaka Fattah |
3% |
Dwight Evans |
72% |
Do not know |
What is the MAIN Reason you plan to vote for [fill Q14/Lean], is it because... Subsample size is 324
15% |
You like him as a person |
66% |
You prefer his stand on some issues |
2% |
You dislike the other candidates |
15% |
For some other reason |
2% |
Do not know |
Which candidate would be your SECOND CHOICE for mayor?
22% |
Michael Nutter |
20% |
Tom Knox |
16% |
Bob Brady |
15% |
Chaka Fattah |
15% |
Dwight Evans |
12% |
Do not know |
What personal or professional qualifications do you think are most important for the next Mayor to
have?
Jan 2007 |
Apr 2007 |
May 2007 |
|
28% |
25% |
24% |
Specific issue mentioned |
15% |
19% |
23% |
Honest, sincere, truthful |
12% |
14% |
15% |
Political knowledge, experience |
16% |
13% |
14% |
Ethical, personal integrity |
9% |
11% |
14% |
Understand & represent (all) people |
8% |
12% |
8% |
Familiar with, knowledge of city |
3% |
6% |
8% |
Intelligent, knowledgeable |
6% |
6% |
7% |
Leadership, management skills, experience |
7% |
5% |
7% |
Good speaker, people skills |
2% |
4% |
7% |
Has vision, game plan |
7% |
9% |
6% |
Strong leader, influential, get job done |
9% |
9% |
6% |
Financial skills, responsibility |
6% |
7% |
4% |
Caring, compassionate, concerned |
8% |
5% |
3% |
Business sense, experience |
4% |
4% |
3% |
Not attached to current city politicians |
7% |
8% |
2% |
Educated |
2% |
1% |
1% |
Long-term resident of Philly |
4% |
1% |
1% |
Fair |
15% |
14% |
6% |
Other |
10% |
8% |
10% |
Do not know |
Percentages total more than 100% because multiple responses were accepted. Responses receiving less than 0.5% were added to the other category.
Have you seen TV advertisements for any candidate running for mayor, or NOT?
Apr 2007 |
May 2007 |
|
85% |
89% |
Yes |
14% |
11% |
No |
1% |
0% |
Do not know |
Whose ads do you remember the most?
Apr 2007 |
May 2007 |
|
311 |
343
|
Subsample size |
53% |
37% |
Tom Knox |
8% |
31% |
Michael Nutter |
18% |
9% |
Bob Brady |
7% |
5% |
Dwight Evans |
4% |
3% |
Chaka Fattah |
2% |
1% |
Other |
8% |
14% |
Do not know |
Have the advertisements you've seen for (fill Ads2) made you...
Apr 2007 |
May 2007 |
|
278 |
290 |
Subsample size
|
32% |
27% |
MUCH MORE likely to vote for him |
33% |
30% |
Somewhat MORE likely to vote for him |
10% |
11% |
Somewhat LESS likely to vote for him |
8% |
11% |
MUCH LESS likely to vote for him |
15% |
16% |
Made no difference |
2% |
5% |
Do not know |
What is the name of the COUNTY you live in?
100% |
Philadelphia |
What was your AGE on your last birthday?
5% |
18-24 |
11% |
25-34 |
17% |
35-44 |
23% |
45-54 |
19% |
55-64 |
25% |
65 and older |
What was the last grade level of schooling you have completed?
7% |
Non high school graduate |
35% |
High school graduate (or GED) |
12% |
Some college |
9% |
Two-year or tech degree |
19% |
Four year college degree |
18% |
Postgraduate degree |
Are you Hispanic or Latino, or NOT?
6% |
Yes |
94% |
No |
Which of the following categories best describes your racial background?
49% |
White |
45% |
Black or African American |
1% |
Asian |
1% |
American Indian, Alaska Native |
4% |
Other |
Are you or is any member of your household a member of a LABOR UNION?
24% |
Yes |
76% |
No |
Politically speaking, do you consider yourself to be a liberal, a moderate, or a conservative?
Jan 2007 |
Apr 2007 |
May 2007 |
|
31% |
29% |
35% |
Liberal |
43% |
40% |
35% |
Moderate |
21% |
21% |
20% |
Conservative |
5% |
10% |
10% |
Do not know |
And, just for statistical purposes, we need to know if your total family income is above or below
$50,000 per year. Is it…
21% |
Under $25,000 |
17% |
$25-$35,000 |
12% |
$35-50,000 |
22% |
$50-75,000 |
11% |
$75-100,000 |
12% |
Over $100,000 |
5% |
Do not know |
Sex of respondent:
35% |
Male |
65% |
Female |
Democratic Primary Vote Choice by Selected Demographics
If the DEMOCRATIC primary election for Philadelphia's mayor were being held today and the candidates
were... (rotated), would you vote for Tom Knox, Chaka Fattah, Bob Brady, Michael Nutter, or Dwight
Evans?
Nutter |
Knox |
Fattah |
Brady |
Evans |
DK* |
|
Age |
||||||
18-24 |
18% |
24% |
18% |
24% |
12% |
6% |
35-34 |
21% |
19% |
21% |
12% |
5% |
23% |
35-44 |
32% |
18% |
9% |
17% |
3% |
20% |
45-54 |
40% |
18% |
14% |
10% |
0% |
17% |
55-64 |
31% |
24% |
14% |
10% |
6% |
17% |
65 and over |
30% |
27% |
8% |
7% |
3% |
26% |
Education** |
||||||
High School or Less |
25% |
19% |
14% |
13% |
2% |
27% |
Some College |
24% |
25% |
13% |
14% |
8% |
16% |
College Degree |
43% |
21% |
11% |
8% |
3% |
14% |
Racial Background** |
||||||
White |
37% |
29% |
4% |
14% |
0% |
16% |
Black |
27% |
14% |
22% |
8% |
7% |
23% |
Household Income** |
||||||
Less than $35,000 |
24% |
30% |
13% |
11% |
2% |
21% |
$35-75,000 |
30% |
20% |
19% |
11% |
4% |
16% |
Over $75,000 |
44% |
19% |
5% |
19% |
5% |
8% |
Gender |
||||||
Male |
36% |
21% |
11% |
12% |
2% |
18% |
Female |
29% |
22% |
13% |
10% |
4% |
21% |
Union Member in Household |
||||||
Yes |
36% |
19% |
16% |
14% |
4% |
11% |
No |
30% |
22% |
11% |
10% |
3% |
23% |
Likelihood of Voting** |
||||||
Likely voter |
36% |
22% |
11% |
8% |
5% |
18% |
Possible voter |
27% |
16% |
17% |
16% |
2% |
22% |
Not likely to vote |
25% |
33% |
10% |
8% |
0% |
25% |
* Do not know |
Characteristics of Undecided Democrats
If the DEMOCRATIC primary election for Philadelphia's mayor were being held today and the candidates were... (rotated), would you vote for Tom Knox, Chaka Fattah, Bob Brady, Michael Nutter, or Dwight Evans?
Preference for candidate |
Undecided |
|
Age |
||
18-24 |
5% |
1% |
25-34 |
11% |
14% |
35-44 |
17% |
18% |
45-54 |
24% |
20% |
55-64 |
20% |
16% |
65 and over |
22% |
31% |
Education** |
||
High School or Less |
38% |
57% |
Some College |
22% |
17% |
College Degree |
40% |
26% |
Racial Background |
||
White |
55% |
44% |
Black |
45% |
56% |
Household Income** |
||
Less than $35,000 |
37% |
52% |
$35-75,000 |
37% |
36% |
Over $75,000 |
27% |
12% |
Gender |
||
Male |
35% |
32% |
Female |
65% |
68% |
Union Member in Household** |
||
Yes |
26% |
13% |
No |
74% |
87% |
Likelihood of Voting |
||
Likely voter |
55% |
47% |
Possible voter |
32% |
36% |
Not likely to vote |
13% |
17% |
** Significant differences (p < 0.05)
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