Posted on AUGUST 3, 2007

A city going wrong:
Survey Finds residents HAve had it with violence

By CATHERINE LUCEY
luceyc@phillynews.com
215-854-4172

It looks as if the next mayor of Philadelphia better have a tough anti-violence plan and a hopeful vision for the city.

According to the latest Daily News/CN8 Keystone Poll, a majority of residents are fed up with the violence gripping the city, worried that Philly is headed in the wrong direction and don’t believe Mayor Street is doing a good job.

The survey is less definitive on who people plan to support in the 2007 Democratic primary. U.S. Rep. Chaka Fattah led the pack of likely candidates, with 27 percent of registered Democrats saying they would vote for him.

State Rep. Dwight Evans followed with 11 percent and former City Councilman Michael Nutter with 10 percent. Union leader John Dougherty received 9 percent, former City Controller Jonathan Saidel got 8 percent, U.S. Rep. Bob Brady 5 percent and businessman Tom Knox trailing with 1 percent.

The margin of error for registered Democrats was 6 percent.

But G. Terry Madonna, director of the poll at Franklin & Marshall College, stressed that Fattah’s lead merely means he has greater name recognition than the other candidates.

Only 29 percent of those surveyed had not heard of Fattah, while 45 percent hadn’t heard of Evans, Nutter and Saidel.

“Fattah’s lead is basically name recognition and it does look pretty open,” Madonna said.

So far, Nutter is the only contender to officially declare his candidacy.

Regardless of who they’ll support, the poll shows that voters want the candidates to speak on the issue of violence. There have been 235 homicides this year in Philly compared with 212 at this point last year.

“What the voters want to hear [is] the candidates address crime, drugs and violence in their neighborhoods,” Madonna said. “They want to hear what these candidates will do.”

Sixty-four percent of those surveyed said they believe crime, drugs and violence are the biggest problems facing the city.

Madonna said that 70 percent of white residents and 58 percent of African-American residents surveyed said crime was the biggest problem.

Crime and violence far outranked schools, taxes or jobs in importance to voters.
Asked about the issues they want the mayoral candidates to discuss, 70 percent said crime, 35 percent said education, 15 percent said taxes and 15 percent said employment.

Patrick Carr, an assistant professor of sociology at Rutgers University, said he wasn’t surprised by the focus on violence.

“The mayoral election is going to bring this into [focus],” he said. “People will have a pulpit to say what they feel about it. The rank-and-file community members are afraid, fed up, they’re tired of high crime rates. They’re tired.”

Given the concern about crime, not surprisingly a majority — 64 percent — say that Philadelphia is “off on the wrong track.” That’s a drastic shift from three years ago, when 52 percent thought the city was “headed in the right direction.” And 55 percent think the city is worse than it was five years ago.

The level of dissatisfaction with Street was striking. A whopping 70 percent of those surveyed said Street was doing a fair or poor job.

Only 37 percent had a favorable opinion of the mayor, whereas three years ago 45 percent were favorable. A total of 79 percent had a favorable opinion of Gov. Rendell.
Madonna noted that voters are looking for candidates with experience and integrity. When asked about qualifications, 22 percent said they wanted a mayor with experience in politics or business. And 19 percent said they wanted a strong, influential leader.

“They will look at experience first,” Madonna said. “I think the person is going to have to stress integrity and ethics and have a plan to attack corruption in government.”

A total of 94 percent of those surveyed said they’d be more likely to support a candidate who had a plan to reduce corruption in city government, a sentiment that may have been influenced by recent City Hall corruption trials.

None of the candidates has outlined a plan to curb violence yet, but they have been touting their various accomplishments:

• Evans, who focused on gun violence in his 1999 mayoral run, has sponsored
  legislation that grants Philadelphia the authority to enact its own gun controls.
  
• Nutter earlier this year pushed Street to hire 100 more police officers.
  
• Fattah has secured federal grants for community crime-fighting groups and
  law-enforcement agencies.
  
• Dougherty is the sponsor of a program called “Enough is Enough” that recruits
  union mentors for at-risk youth.
  
• Knox held a forum on violence recently and has printed thousands of anti-violence
  posters.
  
• Saidel has voiced support for tougher gun prosecutions and hiring more police.
  
• Brady recently held a crime summit with all the city’s top leaders.

Rutgers’ Carr said he hoped the public focus on crime would force candidates to come up with plans of attack.

“My fear is some of the bigger names with the bigger war chests are going to steer away from this,” he said. “Because they might think I can win this election without a plan for crime.”

For more information about the poll, go to www.thenextmayor.com.